Brown in Downing Street, Brown in Wales

Brown in Downing Street

It's been a remarkable day. Nobody can deny that it has been historic to see a Prime Minister leave office and another take up the reins. It was quite an emotional time for me, in spite of our political differences, to see Tony Blair (who has been Prime Minister since I was 12 years old) leave Downing Street. While watching today's PMQs (a truly unbelievable session) and the subsequent events, I was thinking - we have to ride out the storm: Brown and Labour will surely get a significant bounce from today's events. I wonder how long the honeymoon will last?

We are very lucky that the Labour Party is broke otherwise Brown would have surely been tempted to go to the country, get a new mandate and capitalise on the bounce. My initial thought was that he might call an election during his Conference speech later this year but given Labour's financial situation, the same day as the Council Elections in May 2008 is now my best bet.

In the next few days, I'm looking forward to seeing who the winners and losers are when the Cabinet is announced and in the next few weeks and months (as someone who is currently taking a keen academic interest in the Middle East Peace Process), I am interested in seeing how Tony Blair will revive the Quartet's efforts to find a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if he is confirmed as Middle East Envoy later today.

Brown in Wales

A Brown Coalition in Wales! Both Glyn Davies and I - two ardent rainbowistas - will both be bitterly disappointed at hearing that the All Wales Accord is dead and that we won't have the change that Wales desperately needs. So will 41% of the Welsh people. The Rainbow option was by far the most popular coalition deal according to BBC Wales.

It was tight. By all accounts, the Plaid group would have been 8-7 in favour of a Rainbow and were 9-6 in favour of a Brown deal. Plaid are clearly divided and this calls into question the sustainability of any deal.

Putting the substance of the document aside, if ratified by both the Labour and Plaid special conferences, this "One Wales" deal will undoubtedly have political ramifications.

A) Is this deal sustainable post-Rhodri (he has said that he will resign in 2009)?

B) What will Plaid say to the people who thought that they were voting for change rather than for a party who will prop up an ailing administration devoid of new ideas? What will be the effect of this on Plaid's electoral fortunes next time round.

C) The Liberal Democrats have been squeezed by their earlier rejection of the Rainbow deal and there is animosity between some of the AMs (PB & KW) and council leaders. Will this mean that Mike German will hang on as Leader? Go for it JR! You can do it!

We (the Welsh Conservatives) have neither won nor lost in this. Nick Bourne has positioned us extremely well. The only way we could lose is if there was a Lib-Lab coalition whereby we would be largely irrelevant as the smallest opposition party.

We would not have been irrelevant if the Rainbow deal had come to fruition because we would have been in government and we are not irrelevant now either because we will be the main opposition party and Nick will be Leader of the Opposition. We will have an extremely important scrutiny function to perform and I'm sure the team in the Assembly will embark on that challenge with relish.