Heavy Blow for Cameron?

After having associated himself so heavily with Tony Lit's campaign in Ealing Southall, it must be a bitter disappointment and an embarrassment for David Cameron to have come third.

In retrospect, he should have kept his distance - it should have been "Ealing Southall Conservatives" on the ballot paper or just "The Conservative Party" rather than "David Cameron's Conservatives". This was a bold move and perhaps he was asking for trouble. 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Clearly the DC effect doesn't hold sway in Ealing Southall. We had a dreadful PR weekend preceding the by-election and Tom Watson - the Labour by-election coordinator - did well in exploiting our misfortune or was it just lack of judgement. Ealing Southall was a litmus test for us. We should be doing better in these contests if we are to win the next election. The result is a coup for Brown and a fillip for Ming - he has been saved from the chop for at least another few months.

I know members of the by-election team and know how hard they work. Indeed, I am a member of the Volunteer Task Force myself (although I was unfortunately unable to campaign in this election). However, the selection of Tony Lit seems to expose a lack of due diligence.

Our campaigning and communications operation must become more slick if we are to do well. We cannot pin all our hopes on DC's appeal or be arrogant in thinking that we are on our way back to government no matter what. It is this "natural party of government" attitude which partly led to our downfall in 1997.

Poor results in Bromley & Chiselhurst and Ealing Southall in the last couple of years are alarming. We must not become complacent and we must sharpen up our act.