Dame Thea King

Dame Thea King was one of the influential clarinettists who inspired me to take up the instrument 12 years ago. I am sorry to hear of her death, aged 81. However, she will still continue to play a role in bringing on young musical talent through her teachings. You will be hard pushed to find a better musical role model.

Does Marmite Blears cheer you up?

In an interview in today's Daily Telegraph (p. 14), Hazel Blears says that she was the "marmite candidate during the Deputy Leadership contest." She said "you either love me or hate me". True enough.

She also thinks that "life is not about targets ... it's about getting a dentist and cleanliness in hospitals."

I couldn't agree with her more but isn't she a loyal member of the government which:-

1) imposed top-down, centrally driven targets on our public services.
2) presided over a crisis in the dental service where a significant amount of people can't register with an NHS Dentist.
3) a government which has failed to adequately tackle the superbug crisis in our hospitals?

Nice talk Hazel but no action (that reminds me of a familiar 2005 slogan) - you could always defect to a Party serious about tackling these challenges - Ogmore Conservative Association would welcome you with open arms.

Brown's Bounce

Ok, it's not a great poll - the Daily Telgraph puts us on 35 and Labour on 38 but where have the Lib Dems gone! This is looking pretty desperate for them - from being on 23% at the last election, they have now fallen to a lowly 15%. We will almost certainly recover after Labour emerge from the Brown honeymoon and when people realise that Gordon Brown is incapable of renewing while in government due to his inextricable link to the last government. Whilst I think a shadow cabinet reshuffle is necessary so that it brings "new blood" into the top team in advance of the next election, there is no need to panic yet. However, perhaps the Lib Dems should panic and reflect upon today's poll. Perhaps they should orchestrate a bounce of their own by choosing a more electorally palatable leader, otherwise they may face electoral annihilation in Westminster as well as Wales.

Cameron's Reshuffle

Following the trend set by Iain Dale, let's see how I do in predicting Cameron's reshuffle. I wonder whether he will reach out to those outside parliament like GB.

DC - my phone is always on - Europe Minister would be good. Better not hold my breath though.

It's over to you now to tell me where I'm wrong. It's more difficult than you think putting a Cabinet together... Trying to bring in new faces means that you inevitably leave talented people out. One saving grace is that I'm not doing it for real. Oh well - here goes...

Chancellor - George Osborne - a move is unlikely

Foreign Affairs - As one of our best orators, I would like to see William Hague annihilate Harriet Harman. Also, as one of the most popular MPs as far as the grassroots are concerned, he will be able to sell the reforms to the Party and build upon Francis Maude's excellent work. So, I think Sir Malcolm Rifkind should be our Shadow Foreign Secretary.

Home Affairs - I would like David Davis to take up the helm at Defence. Home Affairs should go to Chris Grayling

Justice - Theresa Villiers

Health - Liam Fox

Chairman of the Party & Leader of the Commons - William Hague

Environment - Alan Duncan

Defence - David Davis

DFID - Caroline Spelman

Education - Michael Gove

Higher Education - Julie Kirkbride

Work and Pensions - Philip Hammond

Transport - Francis Maude

Trade and Industry - Grant Shapps

Attorney General - Dominic Grieve or Shailesh Vara

Communities - Theresa May

Chief Whip - Patrick McLoughlin

Northern Ireland - Lord Trimble (Lords) and David Lidington (Commons)

Wales - Cheryl Gillan / David Jones

Scotland - David Mundell

Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Nick Herbert

DCMS - Ed Vaizey

Leader in the Lords - Tom Strathclyde

Policy Chief and Duchy of Lancaster - Oliver Letwin

Social Exclusion - Iain Duncan Smith

Housing - Maria Miller

Olympics - Adam Afriyie

Children, Youth Justice - Justine Greening

Africa, Asia & UN - Andrew Mitchell

Brown's First Cabinet

So, Gordon Brown's first cabinet (of all the talents!!) is as follows:-

General comments - a lack of serious female politicians in the Cabinet - surely he could have promoted a few more women from the backbenches or is there a dearth of talent on the Labour benches?

No Ministry for the Nations and Regions - shame!

Chancellor: Alistair Darling - hardly earth shattering news.

Home Secretary: Jacqui Smith - first female Home Secretary, will have to get to grips with two of the most sensitive issues in British Politics - counter-terrorism and immigration. As Chief Whip, she apparently handled the difficult transition from Blair to Brown quite well and has been rewarded with one of the three great offices of state.

Foreign Secretary: David Miliband - youngest Foreign Secretary for thirty years (Where's Margaret Beckett going then - Chair of the Intelligence Committee?)

Education: Ed Balls - one of Brown's closest allies - expected to have a big job - where's Mrs Balls (Yvette Cooper) - has she been left out because of her handling of the HIPs as Housing Minister in the previous government? No - she is still Housing Minister (attending Cabinet when necessary).

Higher Education: John Denham (highly regarded former Home Affairs Select Committee Chair)

Health: Alan Johnson (good move and rewarded for a good showing in the Deputy Leadership Contest - will hopefully restore morale among NHS staff after Patricia Hewitt's tenure.

Transport: Ruth Kelly (hardly the Winston Churchill of her generation).

Trade & Industry: John Hutton (what could an arch-Blairite hope for other than a down-scaled DTI)

Attorney General: Baroness Scotland (I thought that Patricia Scotland would be Leader in the Lords).

Communities & Local Government: Hazel Blears (I would suggest that she has only been kept to maintain the gender balance).

Chairman of the Labour Party: Harriet Harman

Chief Whip Commons: Geoff Hoon (Chief Whip, Lords - Lord Grocott - should be good)

Environment: Hilary Benn (a horizontal move? I thought he would get promotion after his time at DFID but perhaps GB felt that he couldn't really reward HB for relative failure in the Deputy Leadership election.)

Justice: Jack Straw (replaces the Chief Flatmate, Lord Falconer) Rewarded for being Coronation Coordinator.

Work & Pensions & Wales: Peter Hain - a promotion for Hain and he retains the Wales office. I'll be working with the DWP quite a bit in my new role with EDS. No more posts about Peter Hain then. Shame. I wonder what he'll make of the Red-Green deal in the Assembly. I'll see if I can get the inside track.

Leader of the House of Commons: Harriet Harman (also Minister for Women)

DCMS: James Purnell - expected promotion (Tessa Jowell - Olympics Minister)

Northern Ireland: Shaun Woodward - Tory defector rewarded for his betrayal.

Leader of the Lords: Baroness Ashton - Don't know a great deal about Baroness Ashton.

International Development: Douglas Alexander - a beefed up department for DA including international trade. Also Labour Election Coordinator.

Defence: Des Browne (& Scottish Secretary) - I expected DB to move. I'll be working with his department closely too so can't say too much. With protracted wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, this will prove to be a difficult job - if Scotland has been grouped with this big department, is it a non-job?

Chief Secretary to the Treasury: Andy Burnham - expected promotion (no job for Stephen Timms?)

Social Exclusion & Cabinet Office: Ed Miliband - expected promotion for an old Treasury man (younger bro of David.)

Alun - You're asking for trouble!

Assembly Members + Facebook = oh dear, oh dear, oh dear! - should our Education Spokesman be advocating extra-curricular activities like these:- "Alun Hugh Cairns invited you to upgrade to Poke Pro. It lets you take poking further, with 40+ things to do to your friends - like 'Tickle Him!' and 'Kiss Her!' Plus you get to see what Alun has done to you..."

Brown in Downing Street, Brown in Wales

Brown in Downing Street

It's been a remarkable day. Nobody can deny that it has been historic to see a Prime Minister leave office and another take up the reins. It was quite an emotional time for me, in spite of our political differences, to see Tony Blair (who has been Prime Minister since I was 12 years old) leave Downing Street. While watching today's PMQs (a truly unbelievable session) and the subsequent events, I was thinking - we have to ride out the storm: Brown and Labour will surely get a significant bounce from today's events. I wonder how long the honeymoon will last?

We are very lucky that the Labour Party is broke otherwise Brown would have surely been tempted to go to the country, get a new mandate and capitalise on the bounce. My initial thought was that he might call an election during his Conference speech later this year but given Labour's financial situation, the same day as the Council Elections in May 2008 is now my best bet.

In the next few days, I'm looking forward to seeing who the winners and losers are when the Cabinet is announced and in the next few weeks and months (as someone who is currently taking a keen academic interest in the Middle East Peace Process), I am interested in seeing how Tony Blair will revive the Quartet's efforts to find a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, if he is confirmed as Middle East Envoy later today.

Brown in Wales

A Brown Coalition in Wales! Both Glyn Davies and I - two ardent rainbowistas - will both be bitterly disappointed at hearing that the All Wales Accord is dead and that we won't have the change that Wales desperately needs. So will 41% of the Welsh people. The Rainbow option was by far the most popular coalition deal according to BBC Wales.

It was tight. By all accounts, the Plaid group would have been 8-7 in favour of a Rainbow and were 9-6 in favour of a Brown deal. Plaid are clearly divided and this calls into question the sustainability of any deal.

Putting the substance of the document aside, if ratified by both the Labour and Plaid special conferences, this "One Wales" deal will undoubtedly have political ramifications.

A) Is this deal sustainable post-Rhodri (he has said that he will resign in 2009)?

B) What will Plaid say to the people who thought that they were voting for change rather than for a party who will prop up an ailing administration devoid of new ideas? What will be the effect of this on Plaid's electoral fortunes next time round.

C) The Liberal Democrats have been squeezed by their earlier rejection of the Rainbow deal and there is animosity between some of the AMs (PB & KW) and council leaders. Will this mean that Mike German will hang on as Leader? Go for it JR! You can do it!

We (the Welsh Conservatives) have neither won nor lost in this. Nick Bourne has positioned us extremely well. The only way we could lose is if there was a Lib-Lab coalition whereby we would be largely irrelevant as the smallest opposition party.

We would not have been irrelevant if the Rainbow deal had come to fruition because we would have been in government and we are not irrelevant now either because we will be the main opposition party and Nick will be Leader of the Opposition. We will have an extremely important scrutiny function to perform and I'm sure the team in the Assembly will embark on that challenge with relish.

Conservative Fast Track

The Conservative Party will be using a new mechanism of selection for some candidates for the next General election and I am not so sure if I entirely agree with it. In some cases, it is clear that candidates at the 2005 General Election performed so well that Conservative Associations would like to readopt them but I can't help thinking that this system is also open to a certain degree of abuse if used as more than just an ad hoc principle of selection. Whilst I would wholeheartedly support the candidature of some of those seeking selection, I still think that they should have confidence in the membership.

It is not particularly democratic for executive officers of an Association to decide to readopt a candidate without opening up the selection to the whole membership. One of the benefits of membership is that you have the opportunity to select the candidate in your constituency.

This fast track procedure also prevents the open exchange of debate and prevents "new blood" who may wish to challenge for a nomination to do so. If certain candidates feel that they performed well in 2005 and feel that they should have another crack at unseating the incumbent MP, they ought to have no qualms about submitting themselves to the fate of the Party membership.

On the one hand, David Cameron advocates open primaries and on the other he allows fast tracking - I'm confused!

Spin Doctor

Well, I've hit the press. In an article mentioning Welsh political heavyweights such as Jonathan Morgan, Alun Cairns and David Davies and TV stars such as Lembit Opik and Paul Potts, I also get a surprise mention - a poisoned chalice probably. The Spin Doctor in the Wales on Sunday (June 24th) notes that I am said to be "quite confident of filling his ex-boss' size four shoes. Watch this space". Whilst I have made no secret that I would like to make a contribution to Welsh Politics at some point in the future, at the age of 22, it would be boorish to say that I am "quite confident" of assuming Alun's position when he moves up to Westminster at the next General Election. Besides, I am 6ft 2 and wear size 10s so Alun's size 4s would be a squeeze! However, clearly someone has faith in me. No such thing as bad publicity I suppose!

Harman is Deputy

Harriet Harman has been elected as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party by the slimmest of margins - 50.5% to Alan Johnson's 49.5%.

As a meritocrat, whilst I don't think she should have used the gender card as a campaign issue, I acknowledge that a male-female leadership team does have its benefits and that she does give the Labour leadership geographical balance.

However, it could only be a non-job as a Party apparatchic because Gordon Brown hasn't decided whether he's going to make her Deputy PM. I suspect that he won't because he's making her Chair of the Labour Party as well. He would be wise to pick a charismatic, media friendly please-all politician like Alan Johnson to be DPM if he retains the post, but another tip could be Jack Straw (as a reward for being Coronation Campaign Manager) or Alistair Darling maybe (hotly tipped for Chancellor).

I was shocked that Hilary Benn came only fourth after being tipped to be a front runner but it wasn't a shock that our beloved Welsh Secretary came fifth - quite a spectacular failure for one of the most talented self-publicists in the Labour Party.

We wait with baited breath to hear who the winners and losers will be when GB announces his Cabinet at the end of the week.