Heavy Blow for Cameron?

After having associated himself so heavily with Tony Lit's campaign in Ealing Southall, it must be a bitter disappointment and an embarrassment for David Cameron to have come third.

In retrospect, he should have kept his distance - it should have been "Ealing Southall Conservatives" on the ballot paper or just "The Conservative Party" rather than "David Cameron's Conservatives". This was a bold move and perhaps he was asking for trouble. 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Clearly the DC effect doesn't hold sway in Ealing Southall. We had a dreadful PR weekend preceding the by-election and Tom Watson - the Labour by-election coordinator - did well in exploiting our misfortune or was it just lack of judgement. Ealing Southall was a litmus test for us. We should be doing better in these contests if we are to win the next election. The result is a coup for Brown and a fillip for Ming - he has been saved from the chop for at least another few months.

I know members of the by-election team and know how hard they work. Indeed, I am a member of the Volunteer Task Force myself (although I was unfortunately unable to campaign in this election). However, the selection of Tony Lit seems to expose a lack of due diligence.

Our campaigning and communications operation must become more slick if we are to do well. We cannot pin all our hopes on DC's appeal or be arrogant in thinking that we are on our way back to government no matter what. It is this "natural party of government" attitude which partly led to our downfall in 1997.

Poor results in Bromley & Chiselhurst and Ealing Southall in the last couple of years are alarming. We must not become complacent and we must sharpen up our act.

Congratulations Glyn and New Welsh Cabinet

So, here is the Cabinet. I suppose that will mean that we will have to reshuffle to match the appointments.

Ieuan Wyn Jones - Economy and Transport
Elin Jones - Rural Affairs
Rhodri Glyn Thomas - Heritage
Jocelyn Davies (not in Cabinet) - Housing (Deputy Minister)

Carwyn Jones - Counsel General and Leader of the House
Andrew Davies - Finance
Brian Gibbons - Social Justice
Jane Hutt - Education
Edwina Hart - Health
Jane Davidson - Sustainability and Housing

Interesting - has Carwyn been sidelined? It seems odd having just given Carwyn the education brief to give him Counsel General and Leader of the House. I suppose he is a lawyer and is able to do the job. I'm also surprised that Brian Gibbons held on to a cabinet position after a few gaffes at Health.

I look forward to hearing what Glyn Davies makes of the new cabinet when he comes down off cloud nine after his selection. Many congratulations Glyn. You have always struck me as one of the most genuine politicians and a thoroughly nice and down to earth bloke - a man of the people. I think that will resonate with the Montgomeryshire electorate and we will be celebrating a Davies victory whenever the PM calls an election. A big 7000+ majority to overturn but as I have said before, Glyn is the man who can do it.

Glyn may not have to wait too long before he has the initials MP after his name. The Conservatives have launched a Summer Campaign to try and minimise the Brown "bounce" just in case an election is called within the next 6 months. We'll have to wait and see.

Whether Brown calls an election soon or not may rest on the by-election results. Tomorrow we will know. Will Tony Lit, our candidate in Ealing Southall, be first, second or third. Until a few days ago, I was confident that he would be second but after a bad weekend in the papers, third might be the result. Will this present a problem for Cameron?

Shambo Shambles

Call me heartless but Shambo must sadly be slaughtered. This has gone on long enough. The interests of public health must outweigh the religious sensitivities of the case.

According to the Telegraph "David Anderson, QC for the Hindu monks at the Skanda Vale community near Llanpumsaint, said Shambo, whose name means "bringer of joy" was an animal of "considerable religious importance" and as such a policy devised for farm animals could not be applied to it.

He said members of the community believed that slaughtering the black Friesian would be "a desecration of the temple".

He referred to article nine of the European Convention of Human Rights which guarantees "the right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion" and the right to "to manifest religion or belief in worship". Mr Anderson said slaughtering Shambo would be a "serious infringement in a deeply-held belief".

This tenuous interpretation of Article 9 by the Defence Counsel and the reduction of European Law to a mere technicality is tantamount to abuse of the legal system. Shambo has been saved from "death row" on a technicality.

The Welsh Assembly Government's ruling should stand in the interest of public health.

Sir Eric Howells is wrong

I respectfully disagree with Sir Eric Howells' assessment. He has recently attacked the Welsh Conservative Party's“leftward drift”. It isn't helpful to talk of the left-right spectrum in today's political climate. It is an outdated and simplistic political characterisation. As I have noted in previous posts, given the unique political culture of Wales, it is essential that every political party, including the Welsh Conservative Party, carves out a distinctive Welsh identity for itself. Under Nick Bourne's leadership, I think we have done this successfully and we continue to make further electoral progress because of it.

The Conservative Party has always moved on from lost battles and has been a pragmatic party, not wedded to ideology. We seek to make things work and we are committed to making the Assembly work. Sir Eric notes that "if a vote was taken now, the result would be entirely different to eight years ago.” - Very true - the Assembly would be kept with a more resounding margin. There is no appetite for abolition and it is very unlikely that any government would roll back a devolved settlement.

The Assembly can work properly for the people of Wales and the Welsh Conservatives will endeavour to make that happen. Those in the Welsh Conservative Party who originally opposed the establishment of the National Assembly ought to move on from that battle - this debate is over - and realise that devolution and unionism are not mutually exclusive concepts. David Cameron has repeatedly called for decentralisation and Direct Democracy. If run properly, devolution could be a vehicle which will facilitate these aims and a forum which will engender real, positive change for the people of Wales.

The Battle of the Marmite Candidates

You either love them or hate them. Both Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone are charismatic individuals who rarely provoke indifference among the electorate. This is a battle of the marmite titans. Boris will undoubtedly win voters who wouldn't otherwise vote Conservative but he's up against a formidable opponent who shouldn't be underestimated.

I was standing next to Ken Livingstone on the tube the other day. This relatively inconsequential act of traveling on the tube inspires confidence in Londoners and this proves that Ken is a man of London, whether you agree with the measures he has implemented or not.

As Jonathan Evans MEP said on Saturday - "never underestimate the power of incumbency". Nevertheless, Boris has a golden opportunity to reassert himself as a credible politician rather than being perceived as a bumbling celebrity but the Conservatives have an uphill battle. The characterisation of Boris as a bumbling oaf grossly undermines his intellect and talent and I hope he does himself justice in this race and restores his political credibility.

This head to head battle also puts the Lib Dems in a spot of bother. After Simon Hughes ruled himself out of the race, they are without a big hitter and are non-runners in this race.

This will prove to be an intriguing and mouth watering contest on so many levels.

Labour on a war footing

Many laughed when I predicted that the next General Election would be in October but this now seems increasingly likely. The first sign of a snap election was to appoint Douglas Alexander (a close ally of Brown) as election coordinator. Today, Ed Miliband has been charged with drawing up the next manifesto in advance of Labour's Conference in Bournemouth. The Labour Party are currently strapped for cash and have been raising funds. Brown will be keen to capitalise on his considerable "bounce". If he can sustain his honeymoon until Conference season, he'll be very tempted to seek his own mandate and announce a snap election during his Conference speech. The Lib Dems are preparing for an Autumn election, or so I am led to believe, and we should not be taken by surprise either. Let's make the necessary preparations now!

Catching up again...

Another week of no blogging. I have been up in London all week and have had no time to update the blog. Lame excuse I know. I will do better next week - I promise.

AGM

I spent yesterday in the Metropole Hotel in Llandrindod Wells at the Welsh Conservative Party's AGM. Like the Welsh Assembly Elections, I was disappointed at the turnout. Llandrindod is an equally inconvenient place for everybody in Wales to get to (apart from those in the vicinity of course) so there is no excuse for not attending what is an important meeting which reviews our achievements over the last year and sets out strategy for the forthcoming year.

I agree with Glyn Davies - Jonathan Evans' speech was a highlight. Jonathan is a fantastic orator who never fails to engage an audience. He has also just been on the Politics Show with Adrian Masters and robustly defended our position as a mature party who was willing to compromise and work with political opponents in the interests of Wales. He is a class act and if he is considering a return to Westminster, he will be an excellent addition to the team.

Rhodri Morgan

I hope that Rhodri Morgan makes a speedy recovery from suffering what seems to be a mild heart attack. I hope that he will be back to his ebullient self soon but also hope that he doesn't rush back to work. The stressful few months of the Assembly Elections and the post-election coalition talks have taken their toll. He doesn't have to worry. He can rely on the Welsh Conservatives to hold IWJ and the government to account.

Nick Bourne and BNP

I'm pleased that the National Assembly's Standards Committee cleared Nick Bourne. The BNP have always said that they should not be silenced on the grounds of freedom of speech but when push comes to shove, they try to prevent an elected politician from having an opinion. This smacks of hypocrisy to me.

Transatlantic Relations

I declare an interest - I am currently doing a Masters in Transatlantic Relations. I am pleased that David Miliband has said (on Sunday AM with Andrew Marr) that the US will continue to be the UK's "single most important bilateral partner in the world" but I am also pleased that Douglas Alexander has called for a multilateral approach to international affairs and that Lord Malloch-Brown has said that we should not be "joined at the hip". These are not mutually exclusive concepts. We can be a "candid friend" (to coin a phrase from Sir Ming) whilst being a "strong partner". From what I have seen, David Cameron has recognised this in his speeches on the transatlantic relationship.

Looking Ahead

I look forward to seeing the composition of the new Cabinet and seeing whether we can give Labour a bloody nose in Ealing Southall. After seven defections from Councillors in the constituency, we should certainly give Labour a shock. We might even take the seat. I'm the eternal optimist - I know.