Welsh Labour Leadership

This week, it has been rumoured that both the Health Minister (Edwina Hart) and the Education Minister (Jane Hutt), have been taking soundings for a possible leadership bid.

When Rhodri Morgan steps down (currently scheduled for this Autumn) and it’s time to choose the next First Minister, it occurs to me that Labour’s membership will have to bear in mind the frontrunners’ slim majorities (below) as well as their respective leadership qualities.

Wouldn’t it be embarrassing for Welsh Labour if the First Minister lost his/her seat to the Welsh Conservatives or the Welsh Lib Dems. With this in mind, Huw Lewis or Leighton Andrews could still have a chance yet.

My view – Rhodri Morgan has been bolstered by a recent poll which showed that his job approval rating over the whole of his tenure is at a healthy 65%. In my view, his plans could very well be delayed and he could be in charge until after the General Election. He is a very shrewd politician and it could be said that no one in his party at the moment has the stature and/or the majority to replace him.

Is it too bold to suggest that Peter Hain may seek election to the Assembly? Might we see a First Minister Hain post-2011?

Labour Majorities

Jane Hutt (Vale of Glamorgan) - 83
Edwina Hart (Gower) – 1192
Andrew Davies (Swansea West) - 1511
Carwyn Jones (Bridgend) - 2556