Suspension of the Blog

It is with regret that due to potential conflicts of interest with work, I have to suspend this blog until I am in a position when I can resume it. It's been fun and I've enjoyed contributing my views. I'll still be an avid reader and will keep up to date with all the political developments from a sedentary position. All the best to all. Cascittuni - signing off for now.

AW

Logo and Texas

Given that it's recess, silly season continues and there are murmurings surrounding our tree logo turning a shade of blue. I understand why the Party is doing this - to appease the Right - but I have to say that it is a distraction. It's now time to present some firm policy proposals to the electorate based on the Policy Commissions' and Taskforces' reports rather than fiddling with logos and presentation.

I was originally of the opinion that we should keep our Blue Dragon in Wales but I understand why the Party decided to change the torch because of its negative connotations. However, now that it has changed, discussions should move on.

I may be wrong but recent events seem to suggest that on a national level we still don't have the hunger to win. David Cameron must not be deterred from pursuing his modernisation programme. But it is time to stop calling it the Cameron agenda and start calling it the Conservative agenda. We will only have a chance of winning the election if we position ourselves in the centre of British politics and we carry the whole party with us. At the moment, Labour is setting the agenda and we are being made to look like a disunited pressure group responding to the government's agenda.

Perhaps the UK Party should look at how Nick Bourne has successfully repositioned the Party in Wales for inspiration and Cameron ought to get some really top class people in to support him - experienced political operators like Ken Clarke should be asked to be mentors in my view. Cameron could also probably have a refresh of his support staff - bringing in a combination of experienced people who have been there and done it as well as bright and sharp youngsters. Just a thought. Whatever happens, our PR certainly needs to be a lot sharper in the future if we are to be slick enough to win.

I won't be blogging from now until August 22nd as I am off to Texas to be best man in a wedding. I'm looking forward to a few steaks. Hopefully the Conservative Party won't fall apart (totally) when I'm gone and retreat to the Right.

Welsh Conservative Defection to Labour and Shambo

Defection

Right, well here are my thoughts on the row over David Anstee's defection from us to Welsh Labour...

It must be silly season if this is one of the main stories on the BBC Wales Politics website.

However, being a political anorak, I can't resist in contributing my thoughts.

It is a shame that the first sign of a few minor difficulties provokes such a knee jerk reaction from David Anstee - a long-term strategic error of judgement me thinks - unless he has come to the decision that he prefers the top down centrally driven targets of the Labour Party to the bottom up, localism of the Conservatives that is.

I have to say that I have never come across David Anstee (Rhondda) in my 7+ years as a party member in the neigbouring constituency of Ogmore.

Like Anstee, I also attend Policy Forums and contribute to the debates but do not profess to be one of the principal architects of the Welsh Conservative manifesto. As Secretary of the South Wales West Conservative Council, I did not come across Mr Anstee's name whilst discussing the manifesto with colleagues prior to the election or during the campaign so I doubt whether he was an instrumental figure in the policy-making process.

I acknowledge that Brown has done quite well in his first few weeks as PM in managing crisis after crisis but when the normal business of government resumes in the autumn, the bounce could well be over and I am sure that we will expose the weaknesses of the government once again. Jumping ship so early on seems to indicate that Mr Anstee has been uncomfortable with the party for while. Either that or he is merely an opportunist and he thinks he's picked the winner of the next election. A week's a long time in politics apparently. The political tide could once again change quickly.

Shambo

I don't apologise for what I said with regards to Shambo - I still think public health considerations must outweigh religious sensitivities. However, I think that I could have been a little more sympathetic to those who loved Shambo.

On the weekend, my black lab - Jack - who is almost 14 (a good age for a Lab) fell ill. He was in a great deal of pain and we had to make a mercy dash to the vet. We were given the dreaded option - hospitalise him for further tests or put him down. We honestly thought he was a gonner but luckily, we decided for the former option and it ended up being good news - he's right as rain today and all he needed was a steroid injection to ease the pain in his hips. It could have been a lot worse.

Throughout this whole episode, I thought of the Skanda Vale monks who were forced to see their beloved Shambo led away to the slaughter house. It made me think how difficult the decision was.

Update

Conservatives

Those in the Party who criticise David Cameron have a short memory and are clearly content on being in Opposition for the forseeable future. Don't they remember that focusing solely and primarily on immigration, low taxes and Europe has cost us the last three General Elections. Edward Leigh says that these issues "enthuse" activists. I'll tell you what would enthuse me - winning and actually engendering change by being in government rather than by sniping and carping from the sidelines. We need to get behind David Cameron instead. Leigh goes on the say that "liberalism doesn't win elections". Maybe not but nor does factionalism. Pragmatism and centrism wins elections. United parties win elections. It serves neither man nor beast for Edward Leigh or Ali Miraj to be undermining Cameron in this way.

Nick Bourne is right to say that a change in strategy would be absurd. I totally agree with Nick in saying that “David Cameron’s leadership has taken the party in exactly the right direction." I am glad that the Welsh Conservatives seem to be united and supportive of DC in spite of our difficult few weeks in Westminster. Brown's bounce won't last forever. We must remain on this course and not succumb to the opportunists who seek to undermine the leadership.

Lembit Opik

Lembit Opik has been tipped as a potential candidate for the London mayoral race. He says he has no intention of standing but if I were him, I would be tempted given that he is up against the Welsh Conservative powerhouse that is Glyn Davies at the next General Election. I would want to get out of Montgomeryshire too if I were Lembit. The prospect of facing Glyn can't exactly fill him with joy. It would certainly be an interesting contest though - Boris, Ken and Lembit going head to head. Whether Lembit stands or not, it will prove to be an intriguing contest. However, it would be nice to see the Lib Dems field a heavyweight candidate to avoid being also-rans.

Andrew Lilico - The Differences between a modern Conservative and a Blairite

I read an interesting article on Conservative Home on Tuesday about the differences between a modern Conservative and a Blairite. I encourage everyone to read it at www.conservativehome.co.uk

European Treaty

Whether you're a pro-European or a Eurosceptic, it's clear that Brown must honour his party's manifesto commitment and give us a referendum on the proposed European Treaty given that 90% of the proposed measures have been lifted from the rejected European Constitution. Labour members refer to the fact that we did not offer a referendum on the Maastricht Treaty. That's true but we didn't promise one either.

Congratulations Alun

I have sadly had to turn on comment moderation for the small number of people who actually make comments on this blog following a couple of abusive comments. I have no idea why people hide behind anonymity to make disparaging and unfounded remarks about my character. I was hoping that this blog could be a forum for an open, intelligent, free-flowing and well-meaning debate.

Anyway, on a much more important and happier note, I am delighted to report that my good friend and former boss, Alun Cairns, has been reselected as parliamentary candidate for the Vale of Glamorgan. I look forward to campaigning with him again and I am looking forward to returning a Conservative MP for the Vale of Glamorgan. It's about time too! Congratulations Alun!

Are they content with opposition?

Is it silly season already or are those MPs who are calling for a vote of no confidence in David Cameron deluded? Ok, we've had a shaky couple of months with the by-election results and Grammargate and this has been compounded by Brown's "bounce" but we have to remember that we have been consistently ahead in the polls for 12 - 18 months. This is just a minor blip!

Cameron has transformed our Party into being a potential winner. These people who are sniping from the sidelines are clearly content with opposition, not government. Andrew Mitchell is right - those who are calling for a vote of no confidence are "gutless".

Anne Widdecome also said: "I don't understand what they think is going to happen next. I mean, are they really saying - are they really saying - they want another leadership election, when this man has been so consistently ahead? It seems to me an extraordinary thing to do."

If a vote of no confidence is called against our Leader, who is taking our Party in the right direction, transforming us into a credible alternative government, and making the necessary changes to restore trust in our Party, then I will most definitely resign my membership.

Heavy Blow for Cameron?

After having associated himself so heavily with Tony Lit's campaign in Ealing Southall, it must be a bitter disappointment and an embarrassment for David Cameron to have come third.

In retrospect, he should have kept his distance - it should have been "Ealing Southall Conservatives" on the ballot paper or just "The Conservative Party" rather than "David Cameron's Conservatives". This was a bold move and perhaps he was asking for trouble. 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Clearly the DC effect doesn't hold sway in Ealing Southall. We had a dreadful PR weekend preceding the by-election and Tom Watson - the Labour by-election coordinator - did well in exploiting our misfortune or was it just lack of judgement. Ealing Southall was a litmus test for us. We should be doing better in these contests if we are to win the next election. The result is a coup for Brown and a fillip for Ming - he has been saved from the chop for at least another few months.

I know members of the by-election team and know how hard they work. Indeed, I am a member of the Volunteer Task Force myself (although I was unfortunately unable to campaign in this election). However, the selection of Tony Lit seems to expose a lack of due diligence.

Our campaigning and communications operation must become more slick if we are to do well. We cannot pin all our hopes on DC's appeal or be arrogant in thinking that we are on our way back to government no matter what. It is this "natural party of government" attitude which partly led to our downfall in 1997.

Poor results in Bromley & Chiselhurst and Ealing Southall in the last couple of years are alarming. We must not become complacent and we must sharpen up our act.

Congratulations Glyn and New Welsh Cabinet

So, here is the Cabinet. I suppose that will mean that we will have to reshuffle to match the appointments.

Ieuan Wyn Jones - Economy and Transport
Elin Jones - Rural Affairs
Rhodri Glyn Thomas - Heritage
Jocelyn Davies (not in Cabinet) - Housing (Deputy Minister)

Carwyn Jones - Counsel General and Leader of the House
Andrew Davies - Finance
Brian Gibbons - Social Justice
Jane Hutt - Education
Edwina Hart - Health
Jane Davidson - Sustainability and Housing

Interesting - has Carwyn been sidelined? It seems odd having just given Carwyn the education brief to give him Counsel General and Leader of the House. I suppose he is a lawyer and is able to do the job. I'm also surprised that Brian Gibbons held on to a cabinet position after a few gaffes at Health.

I look forward to hearing what Glyn Davies makes of the new cabinet when he comes down off cloud nine after his selection. Many congratulations Glyn. You have always struck me as one of the most genuine politicians and a thoroughly nice and down to earth bloke - a man of the people. I think that will resonate with the Montgomeryshire electorate and we will be celebrating a Davies victory whenever the PM calls an election. A big 7000+ majority to overturn but as I have said before, Glyn is the man who can do it.

Glyn may not have to wait too long before he has the initials MP after his name. The Conservatives have launched a Summer Campaign to try and minimise the Brown "bounce" just in case an election is called within the next 6 months. We'll have to wait and see.

Whether Brown calls an election soon or not may rest on the by-election results. Tomorrow we will know. Will Tony Lit, our candidate in Ealing Southall, be first, second or third. Until a few days ago, I was confident that he would be second but after a bad weekend in the papers, third might be the result. Will this present a problem for Cameron?

Shambo Shambles

Call me heartless but Shambo must sadly be slaughtered. This has gone on long enough. The interests of public health must outweigh the religious sensitivities of the case.

According to the Telegraph "David Anderson, QC for the Hindu monks at the Skanda Vale community near Llanpumsaint, said Shambo, whose name means "bringer of joy" was an animal of "considerable religious importance" and as such a policy devised for farm animals could not be applied to it.

He said members of the community believed that slaughtering the black Friesian would be "a desecration of the temple".

He referred to article nine of the European Convention of Human Rights which guarantees "the right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion" and the right to "to manifest religion or belief in worship". Mr Anderson said slaughtering Shambo would be a "serious infringement in a deeply-held belief".

This tenuous interpretation of Article 9 by the Defence Counsel and the reduction of European Law to a mere technicality is tantamount to abuse of the legal system. Shambo has been saved from "death row" on a technicality.

The Welsh Assembly Government's ruling should stand in the interest of public health.

Sir Eric Howells is wrong

I respectfully disagree with Sir Eric Howells' assessment. He has recently attacked the Welsh Conservative Party's“leftward drift”. It isn't helpful to talk of the left-right spectrum in today's political climate. It is an outdated and simplistic political characterisation. As I have noted in previous posts, given the unique political culture of Wales, it is essential that every political party, including the Welsh Conservative Party, carves out a distinctive Welsh identity for itself. Under Nick Bourne's leadership, I think we have done this successfully and we continue to make further electoral progress because of it.

The Conservative Party has always moved on from lost battles and has been a pragmatic party, not wedded to ideology. We seek to make things work and we are committed to making the Assembly work. Sir Eric notes that "if a vote was taken now, the result would be entirely different to eight years ago.” - Very true - the Assembly would be kept with a more resounding margin. There is no appetite for abolition and it is very unlikely that any government would roll back a devolved settlement.

The Assembly can work properly for the people of Wales and the Welsh Conservatives will endeavour to make that happen. Those in the Welsh Conservative Party who originally opposed the establishment of the National Assembly ought to move on from that battle - this debate is over - and realise that devolution and unionism are not mutually exclusive concepts. David Cameron has repeatedly called for decentralisation and Direct Democracy. If run properly, devolution could be a vehicle which will facilitate these aims and a forum which will engender real, positive change for the people of Wales.